Monday, January 2, 2012

Twitter as Mood Ring: We're in a Funk

A group of mathematicians turned to Twitter to gauge global happiness for 2011, and it seems the last 12 months have not been humanity's cheeriest.

The team from the University of Vermont gathered 4.6 billion Twitter messages from Twitter's 33 million users from around the world. Starting in September 2008, the mathematicians, led by Peter Dodds, assigned happiness grades to more than 10,000 common words with the help of volunteers who judged the words on a scale of 1 to 9. So a word such as "laughter" got an 8.5 and "food" had a 7.44 score. A word such as "terrorist" scored 1.3.

When the team plotted the numbers on a graph, the results showed a gradual downward slope for about the past year and half, except for a brief period between January and April 2009. The gloom and doom wasn't year-round, though. Researchers found that during holidays, moods generally increased, particularly on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, when Twitter was trending the happiest. Mondays and Tuesdays are typically bummers.

Similarly, during significant cultural moments, the varying moods were easy to spot. The team's report, "Temporal Patterns of Happiness and Information in a Global Social Network," noted that some of the sharpest declines in happiness were during the 2008 financial bailout, which they said led to a "multi-week depression." The 2009 H1N1 outbreak, natural disasters such as the earthquakes in Japan and Chile, Michael Jackson's death, Germany beating England in the 2010 World Cup and even the ending of "Lost" all caused significant dents in happiness trending.

Even though many Twitter users are members of a younger generation and most live in developed countries, especially the U.S., Dodds said the team made sure to include users of all ages and cultures.


Twitter vs. Other Networks

Using words from Twitter was a modern sampling from a major means of communication in a newly technological world, according to the team.

"Twitter is very appropriate," agreed Neal Schaffer, social media strategy consultant at Windmill Marketing.

"Obviously it's real time, it is very mobile-centric and there is a culture of retweeting and spreading information that is quicker than other networks. Because of those factors, I would tend to believe that information gets spread in real time very quickly so it could be a good judge," he told TechNewsWorld.

Twitter is also unique for its mostly open platform and interactions with people who might not be friends or even know each other in real life, which for the most part is unlike Facebook or other networks, according to the researchers.

"There is a lot of conversation on Twitter," said Schaffer. "There's link-sharing and very casual conversations and expressing of emotions. It's also primarily a public platform, where on Facebook, LinkedIn, or even Google+, if you try to get a gauge of peoples' opinions, a lot don't have them open to the public, whereas Twitter is more of a forum."

Getting Smart With Social Media

As forums such as Twitter grow in use, companies have starting to use them to listen to customers, and now social scientists are taking a look as well.

"Big brands are already [using] social media monitoring software and trying to get a gauge for sentiment analysis, and we're moving into the next generation with natural language processing, which has been developed by scientists and psychologists. If big Fortune 500 brands are starting to do that as a gauge, it makes sense that elected officials and other stakeholders use Twitter as one of the metrics to gauge public opinion," said Schaffer

Technology Scandals of 2012

he Scandals of 2012

Oracle: Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) has a number of things going for it that have me placing it at the top of my list for 2012. It has an aging CEO who tends to write to The New York Times and reportedly likes to date subordinates. At the time at which its financial situation should have been showing more stress from the Sun acquisition, it fired and didn't replace its CFO, suggesting potential miss-reporting problems. Finally, the letter that got Mark Hurd fired from HP (which would burn your eyes out) is likely to be released next year. Mark Hurd works for Oracle now.
Any one of these could become front page news over the next 12 months. My early bet is on that letter, because there continues to be pressure to make it public.

Google: Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) continues as a litigation magnet, and as we discovered with Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) several times last decade, discovery that includes email can locate and make public some unfortunate memos.
Given there have been financial representations of how well Android is doing and that Android is a copy, my best guess is the revelation of a smoking gun on intentionally copying Apple or Microsoft, or one that supports the idea that Google is leveraging its monopoly power to take over another market.

A number of folks are working on models that show that Google would have made more money (largely off of Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) use of Google search) had it not done Android, suggesting at the very least it may be covering up its own stupidity.

One other area is its chairman is actively engaging in politics, and it is believed that's being done to influence the ITC decisions on Google's battle with Apple. Since Obama is the target, this could become political fodder in an election year.

AOL: AOL appears to the outside world to be largely dysfunctional at the moment, with internal battles between executives commonly vented in external forums. In short, a lot of folks who write and have large followings appear to be really pissed off at its executive team, and some are leaving. A combination of voice and anger can often result in people saying things in public that otherwise might have remained private, and whether or not there is actually any wrongdoing, allegations can sting.
Until AOL turns the corner -- and it is clearly going in the wrong direction at the moment -- there's a high likelihood that someone will go public with a very loud and damaging recounting of events surrounding some executive staffing, acquisition, compensation or other decision. In this instance, there may actually not be a scandal, but perception remains 100 percent of reality. Or the public discourse may, in and of itself, represent that scandal.

Facebook: We exit this year with Facebook under rules that are in flux in regard to privacy, as well as one of the biggest attacks using pornography on record.
In an election year, the changing rules alone could result in a privacy gaff of epic proportions, or a discussion made public that reflects very badly on how internal security decisions are made, likely from a disgruntled ex-employee or someone looking for a political advantage. Granted, this could also happen with another social network, but Facebook is the biggest, and that puts it most squarely in the crosshairs for anyone wanting, or needing, to make a major splash.

Recall how HP's pretexting scandal was used in an election year? Next year, Facebook and social networking would appear to be the low-hanging fruit.

Apple: I think that Apple, like Facebook, will be a victim of circumstances. Steve Jobs maintained tight control over PR (the organization that's tasked with keeping bad news contained) and as a result, reports are that it is largely rudderless at the moment.
High volume consumer products have problems. In the past, largely contained problems, including flaming batteries, bad antenna placement decisions, overly fragile screens, secret payments to silence upset customers (hardly unique), and the use of child labor were eventually contained.

However, Jobs had a hand in all of these, and without him it likely will take some time for this organization to fully adjust to this decision gap. I'm hearing that there are large groups of folks at Apple who are rudderless at the moment, which is not uncommon when a micromanager departs.

The combination of high volume and an inability to contain problems quickly is likely to result in things getting blown out of proportion and into scandal territory.

Scandal Valley?

This year, I began to think that Silicon Valley should change its name to Scandal Valley, but then I doubt it will ever really hold a candle to Washington, D.C. These things often come down to someone who should know better doing something stupid and getting caught doing it. With every smartphone user a potential Internet reporter, regardless of where the scandal actually is, technology will likely be at the center of it.

My personal choice is that the tech market becomes more about capturing than creating scandals going forward, but given history, I doubt my choice will come to be.

One thing is sure: In an election year, the likelihood there will be a scandal is very high. The only question is, who will get credit for capturing that next embarrassing moment?

Product of the Week: TiVo Premier Elite



The TiVo Premier Elite is the TiVo I didn't know I'd always wanted. I've been a TiVo user since the beginning and currently have four of them in my house. The problem was that I still missed programs due to double-booking, and often programs I wanted to watch weren't on the same TiVo (and you can't get a view of all of the TiVos on one screen).


The TiVo Premier Elite
This new TiVo Premier Elite was just what the doctor ordered, and I've noted that all four tuners are lit up (the front panel shows recording activity) a surprising amount of the time, suggesting a six-tuner model might eventually be needed.

The only problem with this product, and the Premier class, is that it is a bit underpowered, so the menus are often annoyingly slow. Once playing, however, the programs are sharp and the two terabytes of capacity and THX sound are greatly appreciated.

Eventually TiVo will be made obsolete by services like Hulu, but today these services lack so many programs that they just aren't that useful by themselves, and the TiVo does a nice job linking to both Hulu Pro and Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) for streaming content you may not have recorded. As a result, the TiVo Premier Elite isn't just my product of the week, but is also on my short list for product of the year